Apple has just released the fourth quarter of 2020 (July September) results, revenue set a record for the fourth quarter, and also exceeded Wall Street’s expectations. But wall street didn’t sell because of this. Apple’s share price fell 5% after the financial report. What is Apple’s quarterly earnings report like? < / P > < p > in terms of data alone, Apple’s performance in this quarter is actually quite good. Under the dual impact of the epidemic and the delay of iPhone 12, they still reached a quarterly record high of $64.668 billion, recording a year-on-year growth of 1.03%. Another piece of good news for apple is that, while the global economy has also been seriously affected by the epidemic, apple is still recording fairly good growth in most regions outside Greater China. < / P > < p > Apple’s only concern is that they are still not doing well in this quarter. Apple in the case of increased gross profit, operating profit fell 5% year-on-year. In the past five years, Apple’s R & D investment totaled about $70 billion, with an average annual growth rate of about 12%; however, in terms of revenue, the average annual growth rate was only about 10%. It can be seen that in recent years, in the face of fierce competition, Apple has increased its R & D expenditure significantly, but it is still unable to exchange for the corresponding revenue growth, which has led to the narrowing of its profit margin in recent years. < / P > < p > on the other hand, the revenue of services, which Wall Street is very concerned about, increased by 16% to US $14.5 billion year-on-year, which alone has reached more than half of the iPhone’s revenue in the whole quarter. The number of paid users of Apple’s account (maestca) increased by 35.5% to 1.5 billion in this quarter. As some analysts pointed out earlier, Apple’s iPhone users have reached 1 billion, which means that apple still has great potential for growth in service revenue. < / P > < p > Apple’s performance growth also largely comes from the rapid growth of sales of hardware other than iPhone. In this quarter, MAC and iPad achieved 29% and 46% revenue growth respectively, benefiting from the growth of home office demand brought by the epidemic (above), and became the biggest contributor to Apple’s performance growth in this quarter. < / P > < p > in other words, this quarter’s performance did not improve significantly, in fact, the iPhone’s performance is lagging behind. Apple’s poor performance on two key data points is due to a key problem: the delay of the new iPhone. Odin once pointed out that since Apple will launch a new iPhone in September every year, users will wait for the launch of the new iPhone with money from July to September every year, resulting in a sharp drop in iPhone sales in the current quarter. As a result, apple tends to deliberately launch a new generation of iPhones in the last week of the fourth quarter, in order to support Apple’s performance in this quarter through the first week sales of iPhones. But iPhone 12’s revenue fell 11% year-on-year as the iPhone 12 lost its first week of sales. < / P > < p > how much impact will this delay have on Apple’s performance this season? The first is the decline in sales. According to IDC, iPhone sales were about 41.6 million units in the quarter, down 10.6% year-on-year (blue bar above). According to Guo Mingxu of Tianfeng international, the sales volume of iPhone 12 in the first week of pre-sale will reach 7-9 million units. Of course, this sales volume may not be all superimposed on the sales volume of iPhone in the fourth quarter, but if the iPhone 12 is launched as scheduled, it is conservatively estimated that the sales volume will be equivalent to 46.6 million units last year. < / P > < p > another obvious effect of the iPhone delay is the decline in the average iPhone price. As consumers who are willing to spend more money on high-end iPhones will wait and see because of the delay of the iPhone 12, Apple will have to cut prices or push sales of cheap iPhone se to attract customers to buy this quarter. However, due to the delay of iPhone 12, the average price of iPhone in the fourth quarter (estimated according to IDC data) fell from $715 in the same period last year to $635 in this quarter (red line above), down 11.2% year-on-year. If the iPhone 12 is not delayed, iPhone sales may be 46.6 million units. Assuming that the average price is the same as the same period last year, iPhone revenue in this quarter may reach $35.333 billion (yellow bar above). < / P > < p > in other words, apple lost about $7.089 billion in revenue as a result of the iPhone 12 delay, accounting for about 11% of Apple’s revenue this quarter. < / P > < p > at present, under the severe global epidemic situation, China is almost one of the few major consumer electronics markets that can return to normal. Moreover, according to the data of APP Annie, the mobile data platform, China is still the second largest application market of IOS in the world after the United States, which proves that apple still has considerable development space in China. < / P > < p > however, as in last season, apple not only failed to take advantage of the market that has recovered from the epidemic, but also experienced a very serious performance decline, with revenue falling 28.6% year-on-year and a loss of $3.188 billion (about 4.9% of the total revenue in this quarter). At present, Apple’s Greater China performance is less than US $8 billion, which is the lowest since 2015, while the Greater China region accounts for only 12.7%, which is also the lowest since Apple divided the Greater China region into an independent plate in 2012. < / P > < p > according to the data of China’s mobile phone market provided by the governor of anhudu Prefecture, the sales volume of iPhone dropped by more than 20%. It can be seen that one of the reasons why the iPhone didn’t sell well in China is Huawei’s efforts to develop the domestic mobile phone market after being listed in the entity list, which not only squeezed the iPhone out of the market, but also squeezed out the share of oppovivo Xiaomi. < / P > < p > so does this mean that the iPhone is not popular with Chinese users? Not exactly. At least, it’s hard for apple to compete with Huawei as the iPhone 11 enters the final stage of its product cycle. Therefore, Apple CEO cook also made it clear in the financial report meeting that: < / P > < p > in terms of revenue share, the sales volume of iPhone in Greater China in this quarter is estimated to be less than 5.3 million. However, according to Guo’s estimation, the Chinese market accounts for 35% – 45% of the global iPhone 12 pre orders, in other words, it brings more than 2 million orders, which is enough to increase the sales of iPhones in Greater China by nearly 50%, and bring in no less than 1.6 billion US dollars of revenue, and the revenue is more than 10 billion US dollars. However, the billions of revenue can not be included in the fourth quarter’s financial report, leading to a precipitous year-on-year decline in Greater China. < / P > < p > the delay of iPhone 12 is only a short-term problem for apple. Unlike “loss of innovation ability” or “lack of core technology”, it will bring long-term impact to apple. Similarly, the iPhone delay is unlikely to bring medium-term worries to Apple’s performance due to such uncertainties as the Sino US trade war or the new crown epidemic. < / P > < p > but the embarrassment is that the iPhone 12 postponement issue will span two quarters and overlap Apple’s most important shopping season from October to December. And this quarter Apple’s financial report also proved that the iPhone 12 delay did have a significant impact on iPhone revenue and performance in Greater China. Wall Street is unavoidably worried about the related impact, extending to Apple’s key quarter from October to December. It is true that Odin has twice mentioned the impact of the iPhone 12 delay on Apple’s performance. Some readers still mistakenly think that I think the iPhone 12 is not good, so they look down on the iPhone’s revenue, but this is not the case. After the launch of the iPhone 12, the media’s comments were generally positive, and Tim Cook also disclosed in the financial report meeting that the demand for iPhone 12 was quite strong, with an increase of two digits. But while demand for the iPhone 12 is so strong, it doesn’t mean that iPhones will sell well in these two quarters. < / P > < p > first of all, the iPhone 12 sales days. Odin believes that even if the iPhone 12 is delayed, many loyal users will still insist on buying it. However, we can not ignore many of these “swing users”. Before the launch of the iPhone 12, they may buy cheaper iPhone se or Android phones. There will also be many users who would like to spend impulsively and decide to save money after thinking twice. < / P > < p > the longer the iPhone 12 sales days are, the easier it will be to absorb these swing users, but the iPhone 12 sales days in the next quarter will be significantly shorter than last year. < / P > < p > followed by the capacity of the iPhone 12. Previously, Odin mentioned that the delay in mass production of the iPhone 12 seriously affected Apple’s production capacity. Cook also admitted in the conference call this time that they are currently facing a supply chain constraint, and that they are “working really, really hard” to solve this limitation. It has been pointed out earlier that Foxconn Zhengzhou, the largest production base of iPhone, has invested heavily in hiring and working overtime (above) to meet the production capacity of the iPhone 12. < / P > < p > even if people around the world are scrambling to buy the iPhone 12, final sales may depend on how many iPhones apple can produce next quarter. Is Odin not optimistic about Apple’s performance in the next quarter? I personally don’t doubt the appeal of the iPhone 12 or Apple’s control of the supply chain. But in these three months, there may be too many variables. < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < P > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > < p > P < p > P >. But at the same time, it remains to be seen whether sales of MACS, iPads and services will barely make up for the decline in iPhone sales, as this quarter did. On the other hand, Huawei has just launched a new generation mate 40 in China. Although the iPhone 12 is competitive enough to compete with mate 40, the mate 40 is hung with “Huawei’s last generation flagship”, and there are already scalpers using “out of print” as a means of soliciting. It is reported that there is a serious shortage of products. But is it because mate 40 is so popular that it will become a strong rival for iPhone in China? Or is Huawei unable to compete with iPhone due to insufficient capacity? It is still unknown. Privacy Policy