From wind and fire to cold and quiet, all changes are in a flash. Looking back on the “black five” of last year, a long line has been formed outside the shops on Oxford Street in London at 7:45 a.m. this year, however, the same time and place have been looking forward to the cold. The streets and shopping malls that once had no place to stay are all empty. On the other side of the ocean, the United States has no one to line up, and there are more shop assistants than customers. < / P > < p > the second day of Thanksgiving, the fourth Friday in November, is the first day for Americans to start Christmas shopping, also known as “Black Friday”. Shopping malls usually open at 5 a.m. and offer a large number of discounts. However, this year’s “buy buy buy” efforts are even greater than in previous years, offline shopping malls are extremely cold because of the epidemic situation and closure of the city. < p > < p > according to a survey previously released by Deloitte, nearly 51% of shoppers are anxious about shopping in physical stores during holidays. If you look back to 17 years ago, due to the impact of SARS, many foreign businessmen could not come to China and chose to trade online, which made Alibaba’s business grow by more than 50%. If we look at this year’s new epidemic, will China’s cross-border e-commerce be successful? < / P > < p > although Amazon, the first online platform of the “black five”, has produced very beautiful sales, on a closer look, Chinese sellers engaged in export business did not wait for the explosion of orders as in previous years. Instead, they were affected by the influx of small sellers and the rise in logistics prices, which made them lack of blood supply. < / P > < p > according to Amazon’s official data, during Amazon’s Black Friday and Cyber Monday in 2020, the sales of third-party sellers dominated by small and medium-sized enterprises in the world exceeded US $4.8 billion, an increase of 60% compared with last year. < / P > < p > a beautiful war report may not be equal to “Xi Da Pu Ben”. Wendy (pseudonym), a novice seller who switched to Amazon from the domestic e-commerce platform at the end of last year, told the IT times that this year’s “black five” traffic was unstable. One of the reasons was that Amazon delayed the prime day membership day from July to October, which was too close to black five. Her shop had a big list on the membership day, but at that time, the enthusiasm of the “black five” fell sharply among the buyers who had consumed enough at that time. < p > < p > in the Amazon seller communication group, “what to do if there is no order?” “Yesterday the United States issued a bill is OK, today can’t speak out” and other voices are also conveying the uneasiness brought about by the flow instability. < / P > < p > “we participated in this year’s membership day, the unit volume is still very good, the duration is relatively long, and there are some orders after the end, but the” black five “is really bad.” Miya (pseudonym), an old Amazon seller who has been working for four years, said that when “black five” meets member days, there will be a greater sense of difference when there is no burst. “A single store can sell two or three hundred orders a day on a member day,” black five “can sell dozens of orders a day at most.” < / P > < p > some sellers who have experienced the “black five” explosion have become “negative” this year. Ed (not his real name), who has opened stores in Amazon’s overseas stations in North America, Japan, Australia and the United Kingdom, said he didn’t want to see a sudden explosion of orders in terms of this year’s environment. < / P > < p > in the “black five” of previous years, it is not a problem that a store of ED has sold 700-800 orders, but this year, the sales volume of the same store is only 300. After the outbreak of the epidemic, under the chain reaction of soaring freight, doubling of container price and delayed warehousing time, the explosion of SLR will exceed their cost line. They even raised prices for some head products. “Even if the best model goes up by 10%, it’s still out of stock.” < / P > < p > “evaluation is a very important indicator in Amazon’s commodity ranking. In the past years, we will spend 2% – 3% of our sales, and ask third-party service providers to find real users for evaluation, which is conducive to improving the conversion rate.” Ed told the IT times, “although there is no list explosion this year, there is a certain threshold for the auto parts category of the main sites in the United States, and we have our own factories. Unless we are out of stock, otherwise the ranking will not fall too seriously.” < / P > < p > for example, air frying pan for kitchen and humidifier for home use, among which there are many “black five” hot money, selling 5000-6000 units is not surprising. < / P > < p > however, under the epidemic situation, many new sellers came into the market. Although the sales volume of hot money was good, the homogenization phenomenon was serious, leading to price war. In ED’s view, it is not exaggeration to describe cross-border goods with low threshold in a strange and colorful way. Ede takes a silicone iceberg as an example. It sold 15 euro in Europe last year, but it is difficult to sell it this year when it drops to 12 euro. “The factory itself has started to cross-border, and the price is very low.”. Zhang Zhouping, senior analyst of the Ministry of B2B and cross border e-commerce, said that under the influence of the epidemic, offline trade has accelerated the pace of transformation and upgrading of traditional foreign trade factories, and to a certain extent, has stimulated the awakening of Chinese factories. < p > < p > Miya has a wider range of categories, including indoor and outdoor appliances, kitchen supplies, pet products, indoor home furnishings, sports and fitness, festival supplies, etc., and most of the goods come from 1688 and soufan.com. “There are too many small sellers in the” black five “this year, many of which are similar to those sold and the supply of goods is almost the same.” She hated to say that the influx of small sellers, eat the flow of e-commerce platform. Another side effect of the above-mentioned “chaos” is the weakening of advertising effect. Ed usually starts to prepare advertising drainage one month before the promotion. However, there is no doubt that there is a situation of “more wolves and less sheep” between the limited number of pits and the expanding sellers this year. Not only is the price of advertising increased by 15%, but under the premise of the same quotation, the advertising conversion rate has also greatly decreased, from 2.5 in the past to 1.2 (sales revenue / advertising expenditure). < / P > < p > during the peak sales season, inventory and logistics will become a “big problem” for sellers. This year’s “black five”, they are even more to the sellers. Considering that the current shipping costs are too expensive and the time limit is completely out of control, ed carefully chooses the “stable delivery” method. < / P > < p > “in the past years, the shipping cost of the whole container (container) to the United States was about 20000 yuan / piece, but now it has skyrocketed to 85000 yuan / piece. In the past years, the warehousing time limit was maintained at 45-50 working days, and it is normal to enter the warehouse in three months this year. Therefore, in order to prevent out of stock, we can only increase the price as the inventory decreases. ” According to ED, if you want to prepare for the “black five”, at least three containers of goods will have to be shipped to sea in October. With the value of the goods, each container costs 200000 yuan, which makes Chinese merchants dare not sell orders. The time cost of warehousing is also constrained by many factors. According to Ed’s knowledge, the number of workers on the dock in the United States has been sharply reduced from 100 to more than 20. According to the requirements of epidemic prevention and control, over long and overweight goods cannot be handled manually, and the use of forklift transportation will affect the efficiency. If the goods are piled on the wharf for a long time, they can’t enter Amazon’s warehouse, and the seller can’t sell them. Salesforce, a CRM software service provider, said it expects holiday packages to eventually exceed global capacity by 5% from mid November to December, putting 700 million packages at risk of being delayed. If the package is delayed in delivery, it is inevitable to receive returns from overseas buyers and even poor comments. Although the “black five” has flooded into many new Chinese sellers this year, the good and the bad are mixed, and some sellers have been closed due to selling imitation brands. < p > < p > in the second half of this year, Amazon’s audit was more stringent and began to tighten. Mia frankly said: “it was really slow to” drop out “some time ago. Now many new stores do not have the right to sell. They can’t sell until January 1, 2021.” < p > < p > Zhang Zhouping believes that after the epidemic, a large number of sellers are pouring in, and the good and the bad are mixed. The platform needs to balance the relationship between traffic and sellers to form a benign development trend, which is bound to be tightened accordingly. In the future, attracting more traditional foreign trade brand enterprises to touch the Internet and cultivating more online brands are the development direction. < p > < p > ed regards Amazon as Taobao when it upgraded to tmall in the past. “Amazon platform is already in the tail of the dividend period, and the audit of settlement is similar to that of Taobao to tmall. In this way, customer satisfaction can be improved, rather than expansion.” < / P > < p > “judging from the financial report released by Amazon, whether it is revenue or net profit and other indicators, it still maintains the momentum of rapid growth. In the future, whether the online shopping habits of overseas consumers can be maintained depends on whether the e-commerce platform can provide better products and services. ” Zhang Zhouping said. Global Tech