Blind radical “overtaking on the curve” is being quietly pulled back to normal. “It is not recommended to set a timetable for banning fuel vehicles, and do not advocate putting forward the slogan of banning fuel vehicles in China.” “In the next 15 years, China’s energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles will develop simultaneously, accounting for 50% by 2035.” “Energy efficient vehicles will be ‘Hybrid’ and ‘comprehensive electric drive plan’ will replace ‘no fuel schedule'” This is not what I said. It is Wang Binggang, leader of the national new energy vehicle innovation project expert group, who gave a summary of the upcoming “energy saving and new energy vehicle technology roadmap version 2.0” on September 16. Compared with the 1.0 version four years ago, the focus of the new roadmap is to replace “electrification” with “electric drive”. The difference is a 90 degree revision of the original new energy policy. In other words, “electric drive” means that the “hybrid” will be included in the “electric drive”, and the pure electric vehicle will not be pursued in an all-round way. The so-called “energy-saving vehicles” are fuel vehicles and hybrid cars with low fuel consumption. This revision of the new road map indicates that the current subsidy support for new energy vehicles will be inclined to energy-saving vehicles and hybrid cars. After ten years of frustration, the internal combustion engine can finally look up and breathe a sigh of relief. Although you are old, you will still be your uncle in another ten years. Wang Binggang further explained that “from the perspective of China’s current road environment, energy consumption structure, cost considerations and related industrial chain development, internal combustion engines still have cost advantages, and petroleum energy should not be abandoned too early. By 2035, the proportion of energy-saving vehicles and new energy vehicles should account for 50% respectively.” “According to the plan of China’s energy sector, coal will still account for more than half of China’s power generation by 2035.” Did you solve a lot of hot debates on the Internet < / P > < p > of course, it’s no surprise that you won’t hear or see even a little bit of news in the mouth of a large number of electric bloggers, big V and so-called “technology” media. Although Musk on the other side of the ocean usually farts, they can be moved to microblog synchronously in 5 minutes. But this time, right at the door of Beijing, they couldn’t hear the official statement of the national new energy project leader. (I originally wanted to cut a few pictures and put them in. Just think about it. In the end, it’s all business. No one can be difficult for anyone.) Because we live in a magical age, groups of adults who grew up reading Zou’s satire at the king of Qi’s admonition from childhood believe that we can’t help without pulling out the seedlings. Whoever stops me from pulling up the seedlings just doesn’t want them to grow up, which is the reactionary force that should be swept into the garbage heap of history. In 2009, the Ministry of finance, the Ministry of science and technology, the development and Reform Commission, and the Ministry of industry and information technology jointly held a working conference on the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles to deploy the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. This meeting 11 years ago was the starting point of everything after that. Today, you can see, hear, and touch on the road, airport advertisements, media and we media, as well as pictures and videos, all about China’s electric vehicle market are ignited by this singularity. < p > < p > policy chicken blood, a dozen is eleven years. In the whole year of 2019, the total domestic sales of new energy vehicles (pure electric + plug-in hybrid) have exceeded 1 million. < / P > < p > however, of the 1 million new energy vehicles, they are not restricted by the policy but voluntarily purchased and can be used as private cars. Can you guess how many? < p > < p > data from the National Information Center: commercial vehicles and operating passenger vehicles account for more than half of the 1 million new energy vehicle sales in 2019, and 464000 passenger cars are purchased by private individuals. Among them, only 44000 of the 208000 vehicles in the restricted cities belong to the voluntary purchase that is not affected by the policy; in the non restricted cities, the so-called A00 new energy vehicles mostly belong to the chicken ribs with the nature of “occupying the number” or “laolaole”, and the remaining ones that really have the use value of private cars are added up to about 150000 (the policy affected part of 48000 A0 class cars has not been removed). What is the total sales volume of narrow passenger cars in China in 2019? 20 million. New energy vehicles have been developed for 11 years, subsidized for 11 years and supported for 11 years. In the end, what really can move consumers without relying on policies and relying on strength is still only from 0% to less than 1%. < / P > < p > in fact, if compared with the decline of new energy subsidies in 2020, it will be a “good situation” in 2019. From January to August 2020, under the background of a 15.4% decline in the total sales of domestic passenger cars, the sales of new energy vehicles decreased by 26.4% year-on-year, of which pure electric vehicles decreased by 27.8% (according to CAAC). The car market as a whole is slowly down, but pure electric vehicles in which “lead the decline in the market”, has been placed in front of the fact. After more than ten years of subsidies and preferential treatment, new energy vehicles, especially pure electric vehicles, still do not have the basic ability to survive independently without strong support from the policy. This is mostly a consensus, and those who do not admit it can only be said that it is not objective. Xu Changming, deputy director of the state information center: “new energy vehicles have been a policy driven market so far.” (September 16, 2020.) < p > < p > version 1.0 of the road map released in 2016 has high expectations for new energy, especially pure electric vehicles; version 2.0 is revised to develop both oil and electricity (including hybrid electric vehicles) until the world is evenly distributed in 2035. After that, it will be the long-awaited program time of “electric vehicles sweeping the six countries” (of course, the premise is that the goal is achieved on schedule in 2035). < / P > < p > in fact, the change in the new roadmap is not sudden. At the beginning of this month, Geely Automobile Science and Technology Innovation Board’s prospectus disclosed a piece of future automobile energy composition predicted by the National Information Center. In the figure below, < / P > < p > is the second color block from the top to the bottom, increasing from 7% to 57.4% of the “48V” – do you think it should be an electric camp? Take the clothes. 48V refers to the use of the current popular micro hybrid technology, belongs to the root of Miao Hong fuel vehicles, more than HEV “fuel”. According to the prediction of the National Information Center, the share of pure fuel vehicles without any hybrid system will drop to only 10% by 2029 – but don’t worry. A full 57.4% share is actually occupied by the 48V micro hybrid “new fuel vehicles”, which is equivalent to turning left hand to right hand. In other words, even if we do not include HEV and PHEV in the true sense, pure fuel vehicles and 48V fuel vehicles will still occupy more than 2 / 3 of the share in 2029! < / P > < p > If HEV and PHEV are included (reev is mainly electric drive), the National Information Center predicts that by 2029, “fuel vehicle camp” will still occupy 77.2% of the absolute mainstream market! As for pure electric vehicles, even in the future of nine years, it has just opened up about 20% share. According to this forecast, it will not be easy to achieve 50-60% of the road map version 2.0 hopes to achieve by 2035. < / P > < p > of course, you can argue that these are only predictions, “the first picture of the beginning depends on compilation”, but please don’t forget: the official is the first driver to determine the development of electric vehicles and new energy. Even if the prediction can’t be 100% accurate, the possibility of optimism must be greater than the possibility of underestimation. < / P > < p > on the premise that “electric vehicles completely replace fuel vehicles” is completely unrealistic in the short term, the so-called “traditional vehicles” use electric drive and hybrid to achieve energy saving and consumption reduction, which is the only way to go. < / P > < p > in front of the impetuousness of “electric vehicle every second, every second, every second”, few people have paid attention to how to improve the efficiency of internal combustion engine and how to run hybrid power. I am so touched by this: every time a new technology related to internal combustion engine is introduced, there will inevitably be some people who don’t want to read it. They just leave a comment that “it’s too hard, it’s better to be electric” – as if all the problems of electric vehicles, such as the safe attenuation of endurance charging and so on, have already been solved perfectly. < p > < p > it is difficult to solve the internal combustion engine problem for fuel vehicles, just as it is difficult for electric vehicles to solve the battery problem. Each has its own difficulties, and no one should say who. Put aside any one to find another stubble, is pure play hooligan. < p > < p > 48V micro hybrid is the closest and most convenient solution for pure fuel vehicles. The so-called 48V is to add a set of 48V electrical system with higher voltage on the basis of the commonly used 12V electrical system of fuel vehicles. The engine starting motor is composed of BSG or ISG starter / generator / motor at 48V, and 48V battery pack with larger capacity is added. The original intention of 48V is to meet the higher and higher power demand of electric equipment in the future. However, due to the higher ISG / BSG power, 48V also makes the cold start process of the vehicle faster and more stable, thus making the long-term criticized start-up and stop system more practical (indirect fuel saving); 48V can support the electrification technology including electric turbine, also has the indirect effect of improving efficiency and reducing consumption. If it is an ISG motor, the motor can also provide auxiliary torque when starting and shut down the engine when taxiing to further help save energy. Some manufacturers believe that the 48V system can reduce the comprehensive fuel consumption by about 0.4l/100km. It doesn’t sound like much, but don’t forget that 48V fuel vehicles are still fuel vehicles. Fuel consumption is saved by cutting fuel consumption. < / P > < p > you can briefly understand it as: on the premise of not redesigning and changing the infrastructure of the fuel vehicle, add a set of “hybrid system” with small volume and weight (almost the same as that of the fuel vehicle), and of course, its function is very limited (mainly increasing power supply, fuel saving is attached). Therefore, some people call 48V “weak mixing” or “micro mixing”. < / P > < p > at present, the 48V technology of luxury brands such as Mercedes Benz, BMW, Audi and Jaguar is basically regarded as the standard configuration in the future, and it is gradually popularized with the model iteration. At home, Geely has equipped 48V system with BSG motor as the core on some high-end models. Compared with the real hybrid and the more expensive plug-in hybrid, the 48V micro hybrid will be a trend that will be determined soon. As predicted by the National Information Center for 2029, most of the “disappeared” fuel vehicles are actually “48V”. < / P > < p > among the remaining two main hybrid car categories, PHEV is largely a product of policy driven. At least 50km of pure electric endurance makes it have to carry a large battery pack. The heavy body causes the embarrassment of “having electricity like a tiger and losing electricity like a mouse”. However, the low fuel consumption often only depends on the pure electric mileage to “average” it. Even in restricted cities except Beijing, plug-in hybrids enjoy the same preferential treatment of new energy as pure electric vehicles, and their market share is far from that of pure electric vehicles. < / P > < p > the HEV hybrids represented by Toyota and Honda may become the direct beneficiaries of the roadmap version 2.0. Compared with pure fuel vehicles and other types of hybrid electric vehicles, HEV has higher requirements for internal combustion engine and motor parts. In addition, it also needs sophisticated power distribution device and mature power distribution strategy. In addition to the challenge of complex system to reliability, HEV market is still the only one that has been cultivated for a long time

By ibmwl