Shi Yu, a professor of physics at Fudan University, predicts that this year’s Nobel Prize in physics will be awarded to three physicists who have made important contributions to the development of aberration correction electron microscopy. The above pictures, from left to right, are Austrian scientist Maximilian Haider, German physicist Harald rose and German physicist Knut urban. Together with Ondrej krivane, a Czech and British scientist, the three won the coveli nanoscience award this year. The Nobel Prize in physics will be announced on October 6, 2020. Once a year, it’s an opportunity to review the progress of physics by trying to figure out which group of scientists might be the winner. < p > < p > < p > although some of the science prizes have exceeded the Nobel Prize, the Nobel Prize is still in its supreme position. Of course, in order to maintain the authoritative status of Nobel Prize, the Nobel Committee should also insist on making the right choice. < p > < p > more than a decade ago, I noticed that award-winning fields were increasingly focused on four major areas: particle physics, atomic and molecular photophysics, condensed matter physics and astrophysics, with more or less cycles (also known as rotation or periodicity). It can be said that the award of Nobel Prize is not disorderly. Since the beginning of this century, the annual awards have taken turns in these four fields, but they are not strictly cyclical and can be fine tuned. Over a period of time, the average number of times in each field was basically the same. It can also be seen that the adjacent years are not granted the same field, and even belong to physics I and Physics II respectively (according to the division of NSFC). < / P > < p > from 2001 to 2008, it is just two perfect cycles. In each cycle, the order of atomic and molecular photophysics (hereinafter referred to as primary spectroscopic), celestial bodies, condensed states and particles is strictly followed. In other words, each of the four areas will receive an award every four years. < / P > < p > 2009 is the original spectroscopic award, which is indeed an extension of the previous order. But then there was a fine-tuning. We can do some objective analysis here. < / P > < p > in July 2012, the Higgs particle was discovered, which proved the brout englert Higgs mechanism (the mechanism of basic particles obtaining mass). This is a great progress in particle physics, and the related work should be awarded the Nobel Prize. But by then, the nomination period for the 2012 Nobel Prize was over. So it’s not until 2013. Indeed, the 2013 Nobel Prize was awarded to the theorists who proposed the mechanism (except for the dead brout). I once speculated that in order to avoid awarding particle physics in 2012 and 2013, the original spectroscopic light was replaced by particles that should have been their turn four years apart. < / P > < p > it can be seen that the Nobel Prize caused by such a major emergency is similar to queue jumping, which has limited impact on the original cycle with fine tuning or the original queued projects. Although particle physics was not given to particle physics for two consecutive years, it won the prize again one year later. However, the project in 2015 is far away from the Higgs mechanism, and it is also “supposed to” It’s the turn of astrophysics. < / P > < p > similarly, in 2016, LIGO directly detected gravitational waves, and the fastest time to win the prize is 2017. In fact, LIGO did win in 2017. It didn’t affect astrophysics again a year later. In 1956, Li Zhengdao and Yang Zhenning proposed that parity may not be conserved in weak interaction. At the beginning of 1957, it was proved experimentally that there was no conservation. Fortunately, it was very close, but it didn’t reach the 1957 Nobel nomination deadline. This makes the 1957 Nobel Prize of Li Zhengdao and Yang Zhenning become the fastest Nobel Prize in history, that is, the shortest interval from the publication of the paper to the award. The record is hard to break. The domain division of < / P > < p > is relatively rough. Award winning projects in the same field that are close to time will also be kept away as far as possible. This can be called the inner loop, while the loop between the four domains can be called the outer loop. Fine tuning in the external circulation is compensated by the internal circulation. This can be called the “stay away from the principle.”. < / P > < p > for example, although they belong to the general category of particle physics, the 2015 particle physics award-winning work is related to astrophysics, and is far away from the Higgs mechanism, which was awarded two years ago. Although they belong to the astrophysics category, the astrophysics award in 2019 is far away from the gravitational wave awarded two years ago. < / P > < p > although the condensed matter topology in 2016 and the blue light diodes awarded in the early two years belong to the category of condensed matter physics, they are far away from each other. One is the basic theory, the other is the applied work. Although in 2016, according to the queue, it is more likely to be the original spectrophotometer, but because the two candidates who I am optimistic about died one after another, they guessed the topological direction of condensed state at that time. For Higgs in 2013 and gravitational waves in 2017, it is right to say one year in advance. It was also said that in 2009, atomic, molecular and optical physics, in 2015, astrophysics, specifically, the exoplanets won the prize four years later. The neutrino oscillation that won the prize in 2015 is to a large extent the solar neutrino missing problem, which is closely related to astrophysics. < / P > < p > of course, the above analysis is based on common sense. It is a probability result naturally caused in practice, not a rule, and can be violated. The Nobel Prize Committee members may not be aware of these probabilistic “laws” and will not recognize them. < / P > < p > so who will spend this year? Particle physics has not been won in five years, but both particle physics and Astrophysics belong to Physics II, and there is no precedent for winning prizes in neighboring years. What’s more, the specific achievements of cosmology awarded last year involve very early universe, dark matter and dark energy, which are closely related to particle physics. Therefore, this year’s probability of winning a prize in particle physics is relatively small. Even if it is particle physics, the total number of awards in each field will be 5 between 2001 and 2020, which is strictly equal. < / P > < p > we can see macro objects because the wavelength of visible light is thousands of angstroms, or micrometers, because 1 meter = 106 microns = 1010 angstroms. The size of the atom is the order of magnitude of Angstrom, so it can not be seen with visible light, but with electron beam. In 1924, de Broglie proposed that electrons and other matter particles are also waves, which was later confirmed by strict quantum mechanics. Three years later, Clinton Joseph Davis and George Paget Thomson respectively observed the phenomenon of electrons being diffracted by atoms in crystals. In 1931, Ernst Ruska and Max Knoll invented the electron microscope. A transmission electron microscope similar to the design of an optical microscope is called a conventional transmission electron microscope (CTEM). In 1937, Manfred von Ardenne invented the scanning transmission electron microscope (stem). However, because of the serious aberration (the difference between the actual imaging and the theoretical results of single lens), the prism of electron microscope needs to be improved all the time. The scanning tunneling microscope and atomic force microscope invented in the 1980s can only be used on the surface of materials. The main contribution of Harald rose is to design the so-called rose corrector to correct the aberration in TEM, which can also be used in SEM. The contribution of maxilian Haider is to realize the first sextupole corrector based on Rose’s design, and plays an important role in the first aberration correction TEM. < / P > < p > Harald rose received a doctorate in electronic optics from Darmstadt University, where he worked. He has been a senior professor of Zeiss at Ulm University since 2009. < / P > < p > they have won the 2011 Wolfe prize and the 2020 covelli nanoscience Award (see: seven scientists have won the covelli award, but the award ceremony will be held in 2022). This paper has a part of reference information. Spontaneous combustion at a Guangzhou Motor vehicle intersection and other traffic lights in Shenzhen