Although the Spring Festival holiday is over, with the popularity of hot movies such as “Hello, Li Huanying” on social platforms increasing, the afterglow of the Spring Festival is still fermenting. This year’s Spring Festival stalls have a hot start, but the market has been divided. From the perspective of film and channel, they all show an obvious oligopoly effect.

On the one hand, the top two movies in the Spring Festival accounted for more than 80% of the box office revenue; on the other hand, under the high ticket prices, the advantages of the ticket purchasing channels of chain cinema lines are prominent, and the ticket users return.

“After nearly half a year’s suspension of business, many changes have taken place in the whole film industry. This change has been highlighted in the Spring Festival show. The most important thing is the Matthew effect. Whether it is from the market performance of investment and financing, or from the market share after the release of products, it has begun to differentiate obviously. The content with mature IP and audience base is not short of money at all. There is a long line of managers behind it. Even if there are famous artists joining in, the market will not have to pay for the new concept films. This trend is more and more like Hollywood. ” A securities analyst engaged in media industry research said in an interview with Securities Daily.

The era of box office oligarchy of important time films opens

According to the reporter of Securities Daily, the box office distribution of popular films in the Spring Festival (2017-2019) of the past three years is relatively average.

Among them, the top five films with box office revenue in 2017 were “journey to the west to subdue demons”, “Kung Fu yoga”, “making trouble in the sky”, “riding the wind and waves” and “bear haunting · fantasy space”. The box office revenue of single film accounted for 34%, 26%, 17%, 12% and 8% of the total revenue respectively.

In 2018, the top five films in box office revenue were Chinatown detective 2, demon catching 2, Red Sea action, journey to the west, and bear haunting metamorphosis. The box office revenue of single film accounted for 33%, 30%, 21%, 8% and 6% of the total revenue respectively.

The top five box office movies in 2019 are wandering earth, crazy aliens, flying life, the king of new comedy and bear haunting the primitive age. The box office revenue of a single film in the schedule accounts for 34%, 25%, 18%, 9% and 7% of the total revenue respectively.

It can be said that in the past few years, in such an important period as the Spring Festival, the blockbusters were evenly matched. The main factors influencing the box office were word-of-mouth and the hot spots of audience attention. For example, Douban score of 3.7 “big trouble in Tianzhu” accounted for 17% of the box office revenue in the 2017 Spring Festival, which was mainly due to the popularity of Wang Baoqiang’s divorce case and the publicity ability of light media .

However, in the 2021 Spring Festival, the top five films in the schedule are “Chinatown detective 3”, “Hello, Li Huanying”, “assassinating novelist”, “bear haunting the wild continent” and “new God list: Nezha rebirth”. The box office revenue of single film in the schedule accounts for 45%, 35%, 7%, 5% and 3% of the total revenue respectively, with obvious head effect.

From the perspective of word-of-mouth, the top three Douban films scored 7 points, 6.6 points and 7.3 points respectively, which can be regarded as the high scoring films in domestic films. However, the total box office revenue in the schedule was only 1.145 billion yuan, even less than half of the second ranked “Hello, Li Huanying” (box office of 2.728 billion yuan), while the Douban score of the first ranked “Chinatown detective 3” was only 5 6 points.

What causes the box office and score to hang upside down?

“Most of the popcorn blockbusters in Hollywood are sequels,” Transformers 5 “and” speed and passion 8 “. Their word-of-mouth is not necessarily better than innovative movies, but their box office appeal must be stronger, and their willingness to pay for capital is more clear. The investment in movies is directly proportional to the box office revenue, and increases with the growth of the latter. In 2017, the publicity of a spring festival film worth more than 100 million yuan attracted the attention of the industry, and now 200 million yuan to 300 million yuan has become a normal phenomenon. ” According to the above analysts, China has become the second largest ticket market after North America, and capital is more willing to invest money in projects with strong certainty. As a result, sequels with fan base (“Chinatown detective 3”) and works with strong publicity and actor strength (“Hello, Li Huanying”) are more able to sell high ticket prices and get high film layout.

Cinema’s own app is generally 10% cheaper

The opening of the oligopoly era is not only reflected in the upstream of the industrial chain, but also the channel giants gradually show their advantages. During the epidemic period, cinemas closed for several months, and a number of small cinemas went bankrupt, while the giants took the opportunity to buy the bottom.

In 2020, the market share of the top five film investment companies has increased to varying degrees, among which Wanda film, which ranks first, has a national box office market share of 15.4%, 1.2 percentage points higher than that in 2019. A number of institutions have predicted that the share of Wanda film market is expected to rise to 17% in 2021 and 20% in the long term.

Behind the increase of market share is the gathering of user traffic. By the end of 2019, the number of registered users of Wanda movie app has reached 159 million.

“Users vote with their feet. They buy tickets wherever they are cheap.” In an interview with the Securities Daily, a data platform analyst said that the end of the era of ticketing subsidy means that third-party ticketing software such as taopiao and cat’s eye have lost their price advantage. Compared with the price of their own app, the third-party platform has to charge a service fee ranging from 3 yuan to 5 yuan per ticket. “Although the discount policy for taopiao’s access to Alibaba 88vip is implemented, such as If there is no membership, the ticket price is still higher than that of the cinema itself. “

“High ticket price” is an important label of this year’s Spring Festival stalls, which is also one of the reasons for the record breaking box office of Spring Festival stalls. According to the data of Lighthouse professional edition, the average ticket price during the Spring Festival in 2021 is 48.9 yuan / piece, with Beijing ranking the first with a 35.9% increase, followed by Nanjing with a 26.4% increase.

After the Spring Festival, it has become a common situation to watch movies in Beijing with a ticket price of more than 100 yuan per Golden Show. A film lover in Beijing told reporters that in order to save money, he has begun to buy tickets on the film company’s own app.

“Wanda film, Dadi cinema, CGv cinema, almost all large film investment companies have independent ticketing apps, and the ticket price is lower than that of third-party ticketing platforms such as cat’s eye. With the increase of market share of cinema giants, the number of their subordinate cinemas will increase, and the utilization rate of consumers will increase.” A cinema manager in Beijing told reporters that the cinema’s own app will have regular low price activities and increase brand traffic.

On February 20, the reporter of Securities Daily tried to buy tickets on several cinema apps and third-party ticket platforms respectively. On the basis of not participating in the activities, the ticket price of the third-party platform is generally 5 yuan / piece, which is 10% higher than the average ticket price during the Spring Festival. If you take part in cinema activities, the price difference can even reach 63 yuan / piece. For example, during the “watch as you please” activity just ended by Wanda film, users can spend 119 yuan to watch movies 4-7 times during the Spring Festival, which is only 17-30 yuan for one ticket.

“Many people miss the era of 9.9 yuan movie tickets. In the Spring Festival of 2017, there was a 5 yuan movie ticket. With the cancellation of the ticket subsidy in the second half of 2018, the single digit ticket price has become history.” According to the above data analysts, Guevara started the era of online seat selection, and then taopiao, cat’s eye and micro shadow were separated from each other. Until September 2017, cat’s eye and micro shadow merged, and the ticketing platform entered the era of taopiao and cat’s eye competing for hegemony.

He believes that “at present, the identity of the ticketing platform is not only a seat selection and ticketing platform, but also carries more work such as Internet publicity and big data analysis, which is helpful for the later decision-making of the film makers. However, there is also the risk of users returning to the cinema app due to the long-term fare difference. Now the traffic is still the basis of development. For the third-party platform, their advantage lies in the use and analysis of data It’s another kind of empowerment for movies. “