On the evening of November 11, this year, SMIC released its Q3 financial report for 2020, with its single quarter revenue exceeding US $1 billion for the first time, a record high, and its net profit also increased by 122.7% year-on-year to US $256 million. However, on the day of the announcement of SMIC’s beautiful third quarter results, its Hong Kong stock price fell by 7.23%, and the stock price has been depressed since the announcement of the financial report. < / P > < p > even in the case of tight production capacity and rising prices in the whole wafer foundry industry. In contrast, the stock prices of TSMC, liandian, Huahong semiconductor and other Fabs continued to rise. < / P > < p > so, what is the “problem” of SMIC? Under the stimulation of many positive factors, the stock price is still depressed? This may be related to the rumor that under the US export control, “semiconductor equipment import restriction” leads to production expansion restriction, “customer order transfer” and the decline of quarter on quarter performance expectations. < / P > < p > in September this year, it was rumored in the industry that SMIC would be sanctioned by the United States, and then the industry and Security Administration (BIS) document of the US Department of Commerce revealed that the United States would impose export controls on SMIC and some of its subsidiaries. On the evening of October 4, SMIC announced in the Hong Kong stock exchange that after several days of inquiry and discussion with suppliers, it was learned that the US bis had sent letters to some suppliers of SMIC in accordance with the US export control regulation ear744.21 (b), and that some US equipment, accessories and raw materials exported to SMIC would be subject to further restrictions of us export control regulations Only after applying for an export license in advance can we continue to supply SMIC. According to the data, SMIC has 8-inch production capacity in Shanghai, Tianjin, Shenzhen and other places, with a total capacity of 385000 pieces per month, mainly producing 0.35 μ m to 90 nm processes. In addition, SMIC also has 12 inch factories in Shanghai and Beijing, with a total capacity of 195000 pieces per month. Among them, the main process of two 12 inch factories in Beijing ranges from 0.18 μ m to 24 nm, and Shanghai 12 inch factory provides 14 nm fin field effect transistor (FinFET) advanced process. < / P > < p > according to the current 8-inch and 12 inch Fabs of SMIC, the two 12 inch Fabs of SMIC northern integrated circuit manufacturing (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as “SMIC northern”) jointly owned by SMIC and Beijing government are not included in the restricted list. However, other 8-inch and 12 inch factories will be affected by U.S. export controls. However, SMIC has not responded positively to the specific impact of us export control restrictions on SMIC. The official statement has always been “actively communicating with relevant US government departments”. < / P > < p > in the recent Shanghai Stock Exchange e interactive platform, some netizens asked questions about this issue. SMIC is still the previous caliber, and said that “it is not convenient for the company to disclose the specific details.”. < / P > < p > affected by the new epidemic situation, the industry chain is conservative in market prediction, product planning and goods preparation in the first half of this year. With the control of domestic epidemic situation in the second half of this year, and the rapid rebound of consumer electronics and automotive electronics demand (many foreign demand with limited production affected by the epidemic has been transferred to China), and the arrival of the traditional peak season of the electronics industry in the second half of this year, the impact of the epidemic on the industry is obvious Due to the soaring demand for semiconductor chips, the capacity of wafer foundry market (especially 8-inch wafer) continues to be tight, and the sound of rising prices continues. < / P > < p > in the second quarter performance conference call on August 7 this year, Zhao Haijun, CEO of SMIC, once said: “after the application of 5g in the second half of this year, the demand gap of 0.18 μ m and 0.15 μ m mature processes is particularly large, and customers’ profits in the market are very high, so the average price of 8-inch wafer will rise.” At that time, he said that in order to alleviate the shortage of production capacity, by the end of this year, the company’s 8-inch monthly production capacity will increase by 30000 pieces, and the 12 inch monthly production capacity will increase by 20000 pieces. ” In addition, on the evening of July 31, SMIC also announced that it would jointly establish a joint venture with the Management Committee of Beijing Development Zone in China with 51% of SMIC holding shares, focusing on the production of 28nm and above integrated circuit projects. The project will be constructed in two phases. The first phase of the project is planned to invest 7.6 billion US dollars, and eventually achieve a 12 inch wafer production capacity of about 100000 wafers per month. The second phase of the project will be timely launched according to customer and market demand. < / P > < p > however, the plan could not keep up with the change. On October 4, SMIC issued an announcement to confirm that the suppliers of some US equipment, accessories and raw materials exported to SMIC would be further restricted by the US export control regulations, and they had to apply for an export license in advance before they could continue to supply to SMIC. This also means that SMIC International’s procurement of semiconductor equipment, accessories and raw materials may be subject to certain restrictions. On November 12, Zhao Haijun, CO CEO of SMIC, also revealed at the performance presentation meeting: “the delivery time of some US made equipment, parts and raw materials is delayed. We are actively communicating with the U.S. government, and in accordance with relevant laws and regulations, we are cooperating with U.S. suppliers on some U.S. equipment, spare parts and raw materials to apply for the required export licenses. ” < p > < p > in addition, SMIC also recalled its capital expenditure this year, from about 45.7 billion yuan to 40.2 billion yuan. SMIC said that it was mainly due to the extension or uncertainty of the supply period of some machines due to the US export control and the delay of the arrival of some machines due to logistics reasons. < p > < p > Zhao Haijun pointed out that the biggest problem of export control is that it has affected the production expansion plan. The delivery of some US equipment, parts and raw materials has been delayed. For example, some equipment such as high-energy atom injector has been delayed for two months. < / P > < p > “in the past, everyone used the selection of American equipment when building factories, so export control has an impact on the expansion of 8-inch, 12 inch mature technology and advanced technology.” < / P > < p > according to previous foreign media reports, before the US restrictions fell, SMIC had purchased a large number of products from upstream suppliers in the US, Europe and Japan, and the purchase scale at that time had exceeded 2020 This year’s annual demand, procurement projects include etching, lithography and wafer cleaning machines and other process equipment, testing machines, and the purchase quantity of related consumables used to maintain the operation of the equipment is more than one year’s demand. But many of them may not have been delivered. < / P > < p > however, just before that, SMIC confirmed in SMIC international that it was restricted by US export! Influence geometry, how to deal with it? 》It is pointed out in the article that without the support of the original factory, even if there are equipment and accessories, it may be difficult to install and maintain the equipment by itself. For details, please refer to: (wechat push has been pushed by the crab) < / P > < p > recently, some netizens asked SMIC on the e interactive platform of Shanghai Securities Exchange: “when will the equipment procurement for the new 28nm factory in Beijing be implemented?” SMIC responded: “the Beijing new factory project is still in the preparatory stage.” < / P > < p > in addition, recently, due to the continuous shortage of global 8-inch wafer production capacity, TSMC and liandian have increased the wafer OEM price by 10-20% in August this year. Another source said that in the fourth quarter, liandian, Gexin, world advanced, etc. increased the OEM price of 8-inch wafers by 10-15%. According to the latest forecast, the price of 8-inch wafer foundry will rise by at least 40% in 2021. < / P > < p > will SMIC’s OEM price of 8-inch wafer also rise in the fourth quarter? In response, SMIC said in Shanghai e interactive that “orders from existing customers will be carried out according to the signed contracts, while prices for new customers and new projects will be determined by both parties through negotiation, and the company will also improve the average wafer price by optimizing the product mix.”. < / P > < p > according to SMIC’s response, the price of new customers and new projects may change, but it is still determined by both parties through negotiation rather than unilateral announcement of price increase. In addition, SMIC also said it would “improve the average wafer price by optimizing the product mix.”. < / P > < p > since September this year, it has been reported that the US government is considering sanctions against SMIC. For the sake of supply chain security, some customers of SMIC have begun to plan to transfer some products to other Fabs for production, so as to reduce the supply risk caused by US sanctions against SMIC. < / P > < p > for SMIC’s customers, due to the impact of us export restrictions, in case SMIC fails to obtain the relevant license or the license period is prolonged, the production of SMIC will be seriously affected, which will also directly affect whether the customer’s chips can be delivered on time, thus affecting the product planning and market planning of customers and their customers There are serious negative effects on students. Therefore, many customers have to find ways to transfer orders to avoid risks. Around September 22, foreign media reported that Qualcomm is seeking to transfer part of the chip OEM orders given to SMIC to other manufacturers. < p > < p > after the official disclosure of SMIC’s export restrictions at the end of September, SMIC’s concerns increased with the further disclosure of SMIC’s existing international documents. < / P > < p > at that time, the person in charge of some domestic chip manufacturers also disclosed: “although there is no plan to transfer orders for old products at present, new products have to be considered, especially 28nm products.” < / P > < p > according to the data, Qualcomm and Broadcom are the top two overseas customers of SMIC. They are mainly power management ICs produced by 0.18 micron process in 8-inch factory, and they also entrust 28 nm RF components to SMIC for OEM. Among them, Qualcomm orders at least 600000 power management IC wafers in SMIC every year, accounting for almost 40% of its own supply. < / P > < p > SMIC’s response may indeed be true. Since the second half of the year, the whole wafer foundry market has been full of orders. At present, it is very difficult for Qualcomm and Broadcom to transfer orders from SMIC to other wafer factories, so they can only transfer orders gradually. < / P > < p > according to Taiwan business times, in recent months, Qualcomm and Broadcom have successively put forward requirements for increasing the number of chips to Taiwan wafer foundries, such as TSMC, liandian, the world’s advanced technology, and Leeson. < / P > < p > however, at present, both TSMC, liandian and the world’s advanced 8-inch wafer foundry are in serious shortage of production capacity. Generally speaking, the order volume is significantly larger than the production capacity by 30-40%. Even if the price is increased, it is difficult to be discharged into the production capacity in the first half of 2021. Even if Qualcomm succeeds in obtaining the capacity of the three Fabs in Taiwan, the 8-inch capacity they can supply to it will be very limited. < / P > < p > that is to say, although customers such as Qualcomm and Broadcom do have the demand to transfer orders from SMIC to other fabs, due to the shortage of Fab production capacity in the whole market, if there is no layout in advance in the first half of the year, they will not be able to get the production capacity at this time. < / P > < p > therefore, under the background of extremely short production capacity in the current wafer foundry market, SMIC does not appear obvious order transfer phenomenon. Even if there are those who want to transfer out, it is estimated that there is no way to get enough production capacity in other fabs. If they can get some, they will have to pay a high price. by comparison