After entering the fourth quarter, the TV LCD panel market situation is very good, the price is still rising. Recently, South Korean manufacturers have delayed the shutdown time of production lines, and Chinese manufacturers have been increasing production capacity. When will the price of TV LCD panel stop rising? Since June, the price of TV LCD panel has been raised in an all-round way. Up to now, the rising pace has not stopped. < / P > < p > the price of small and medium-sized TV LCD panel rose most rapidly. The price of 32 inch to 55 inch TV LCD panel increased by more than 40%, of which 55 inch price increased by 51 US dollars, and 32 inch price rose by more than 70%. Although the price of TV LCD panel with size over 65 inch increased by less than 30%, the price still increased by more than $30. < p > < p > in the face of the pressure of rising LCD panel prices, TV manufacturers have to start to increase prices from September. TV manufacturers such as Xiaomi Hisense, Changhong, Konka, Skyworth, TCL electronics and other TV manufacturers have raised the sales prices of TV to varying degrees. As a result, the average online price of national day TV is generally more than 10% higher than that of 618. Among them, the average price of 55 inch, 32 inch and 50 inch TV line has increased by more than 30%. After the national day of the 11th National Day, the price of TV LCD panel rose by more than 10% on the basis of September. Among them, the price of 32 inch LCD panel increased by 22%, 34 inch-55 inch price increased by 15%, and size of 65 inch and above increased by more than 5%. TCL electronics, Hisense and other manufacturers were forced to raise TV prices again. In November, the price of TV LCD panel has not stopped rising. According to the report of overevo, a market research organization, although the price increase of TV LCD panel in November has narrowed, it will still maintain the growth state, and the price of 32 inch to 75 inch TV LCD panel will rise between $3 and $8. < / P > < p > this wave of TV LCD panel price rise is mainly driven by two downstream forces. Xie Minxia, senior analyst of group intelligence consulting TV complete machine research, said that the continued strong overseas market demand and domestic peak season stock up have made the price of TV LCD panel continue to rise. < / P > < p > the first force is stock preparation in the domestic market in peak season. In order to prepare for the 11th and double 11th, TV manufacturers have to seize the market share. The demand for TV LCD panel continues to rise, which leads to the rising price of LCD panel. < / P > < p > now it is the double 11 promotion period. TV manufacturers have put a lot of stock into various channels, such as tmall, Jingdong Suning Gome and other channels have accumulated a large amount of inventory to cope with the potential purchase demand during the double 11 promotion period. < p > < p > although TV manufacturers still have some stocks, the inventory level is low. If the sales performance of each channel is good during the double 11 period, the inventory level will remain low. At that time, TV manufacturers may continue to purchase a large number of TV LCD panels in order to reduce losses. The second force is the recovery of overseas markets. Since the second half of the year, the TV consumption in North America has gradually increased by 35% compared with that in the second half of the year, and the TV consumption in the overseas market has gradually increased by 35% compared with the previous year. < / P > < p > part of the stock preparation at Black Friday, Christmas and other nodes in the fourth quarter was digested ahead of time, which kept the inventory of overseas channels low, and TV manufacturers raised the expectation of overseas market. After the high season, the overseas LCD panel will continue to increase in order to prevent the shortage of overseas TV products. Last year, the price of TV LCD panel fell to a low point, and the upstream manufacturers were forced to keep lowering the material prices, which accelerated the elimination of upstream manufacturers, some of which have been closed down. Since the second half of this year, the TV LCD panel market has improved, but the remaining upstream manufacturers’ production capacity can not meet the short-term expansion demand of midstream panel manufacturers, and the upstream manufacturers also began to raise prices. A purchasing staff of a panel manufacturer disclosed to jiwei.com that the upstream manufacturers do not like panel manufacturers to raise prices directly. They call for shortage of materials, and then the prices rise by 10% each time. The driving IC, t-com chip, PCB and other components used in TV LCD panel are even out of stock. A person in the industry said that 5g mobile phones have become a popular trend this year, and the demand for chips required by 5g mobile phones is strong. In particular, the iPhone 12 series fully supports 5g mobile phones, so that the wafer foundry will give priority to the IC components of 5g mobile phones with higher profits, while the IC components used by TV LCD panels with lower profits are ignored, resulting in the phenomenon that supply exceeds demand The supplier has no supply of IC. < / P > < p > the shortage of some materials has limited the supply of TV LCD panel market, which has become an important driving force behind the continuous price rise of TV LCD panel. An industry person pointed out that the monthly sales volume of LCD TV is less than 20 million units. If each panel factory reduces hundreds of K of materials each month, the monthly production capacity of global TV LCD panel may be reduced by several million pieces. As a result, the market supply and demand are unbalanced, and the price of TV LCD panel will naturally rise. The price fluctuation of TV LCD panel has a certain periodicity and a certain rule to follow. The price rise trend of TV LCD panel this year is somewhat similar to that in 2016. In 2016, the price of TV LCD panel began to rise from the third quarter, which lasted for three quarters. This wave of price rise this year is likely to continue to the first quarter of next year as it was in 2016. However, due to the difference between this price rise and that in 2016, there are more uncertain factors, so different manufacturers or research institutions have different opinions on the stop time of this price rise tide. Liu Jiansheng, senior analyst of group intelligence consulting TV panel research, believes that the current price heat of large-scale panel is not decreasing, and the price rising trend may be extended to the end of the year. The consulting report of Dixian pointed out that the delay of SDC and LGD exiting the LCD panel market will accelerate the arrival of TV panel price inflection point, which may be advanced from the original second quarter to the first quarter. Peng Shuanglang, chairman of Youda, said that the situation in the fourth quarter is still good at present, and the industrial prosperity maintains an upward trend, and even the hot situation will continue into the first half of next year. There are three main factors that really affect the stop time of TV LCD panel price rise tide. The first factor is upstream supply, the second factor is midstream shutdown, and the third factor is downstream demand. Any change of these three factors may affect the price of TV LCD panel. What is more certain now is that the closing time of the midstream will be delayed, which will advance the stop time of TV LCD panel price rising tide, but the downstream demand and upstream supply are still full of uncertainty. If double 11 and overseas sales are smooth, the price of TV LCD panel will continue to rise, otherwise, the inflection point of TV LCD panel price may be advanced. The material shortage will also affect the balance of supply and demand. No matter what the price trend of TV LCD panel, it is unlikely that the price of TV LCD panel will continue to decline as in the second half of last year. Bian Zheng, deputy director of research at overivo, pointed out that the supply and demand of TV LCD panel is in a tight state or tends to be balanced, and the price may not fall sharply before the fourth quarter of next year. SpaceX beat blue origin and Northrop Grumman to win a $316 million air force contract